Configure Your Pool
Set pool size, tag any homer teams,
then generate to explore optimal brackets.
Configure Your Pool
Set pool size, tag any homer teams,
then generate to see your top bracket picks.
Set pool size, tag any homer teams, then generate.
Set pool size, tag any homer teams,
then generate to explore optimal brackets.
Set pool size, tag any homer teams,
then generate to see your top bracket picks.
Bracket Buddy crunches team efficiency data, simulates thousands of tournaments, and models what your pool opponents are likely to pick — then recommends the brackets most likely to actually win.
Bracket Buddy generates hundreds of bracket variations by sweeping a grid of strategy parameters, then surfaces the most interesting ones:
The highest total expected value bracket. Picks the team most likely to win each matchup, weighted by points per round. This is the bracket you'd pick if you just wanted to maximize your expected score with no regard for what others in your pool are doing.
The analytics darlings bracket. Finds teams whose advanced metrics far outperform their seed — like a 2-seed with the #1 offense, or a 3-seed with elite efficiency on both ends. These are the "value" picks that the numbers love but casual bettors overlook. Rewards non-1-seeds with big gaps between their seed ranking and their efficiency ranking.
The bracket whose seed distribution most closely matches historical tournament norms. Scored by comparing the number of 1-seeds, total seed sums, and upset counts at each round stage (Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, Championship) against historical averages. Historically, the Final Four averages ~1.5 one-seeds, not 4.
The best expected value among brackets with above-median divergence from chalk. A sweet spot between safety and differentiation — enough upsets to stand out in your pool, but still grounded in probability.
The bracket with the highest late-round expected value (Elite 8 through Championship). Optimized for the rounds where points multiply exponentially. Good for pools where you need a big finish to overtake the leaders.
Maximum divergence from chalk. The most picks that differ from the pure-EV bracket. High risk, high reward — if the tournament goes chaotic, this bracket is positioned to capitalize while everyone else's chalk crumbles.
The bracket most likely to win your pool outright. Determined by Monte Carlo simulation: 5,000 tournaments are simulated with weighted coin flips, and for each one, your bracket is scored against simulated opponent brackets (modeled on typical public picking behavior, adjusted for homer teams). The bracket that beats the field most often gets this tag. Often different from Safest — a high-EV chalk bracket scores well on average but rarely wins pools because everyone else picked the same way.
Only appears when you select a favorite team. Finds the best bracket (by EV) where your team advances the deepest. Prioritizes: champion > Final Four > Elite 8 > Sweet 16. A homer bracket with a mathematical conscience.
Each game's win probability is derived from Torvik adjusted efficiency margins (AdjEM). AdjEM measures how much a team outscores an average opponent per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength and game location. Pairwise win probability uses a logistic model:
P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + 10-ΔEM / 11)
An efficiency margin difference of 11 points corresponds to roughly 75% win probability, calibrated to historical NCAA tournament outcomes.
Regular-season efficiency metrics are too confident for single-elimination tournaments. A 20-point EM gap yields ~98% in the base model, but historically 1-vs-8 seed games are closer to 85%. The damping parameter (swept from 0 to 0.6) scales down EM differences to reflect tournament-level uncertainty — injuries, cold shooting nights, neutral-court effects, and the general chaos of March. At 0.6 damping, that same 20-point gap produces ~73%, generating brackets with realistic upset potential.
Blends Torvik probabilities with historical seed-based advancement rates (swept from 0 to 0.9). A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed 35% of the time historically — at high blend values, this historical base rate has real weight alongside pure efficiency.
Nudges underdog win probabilities toward historical upset rates across all rounds (swept from 0 to 0.8). In Round 1, uses specific seed-matchup data (5/12: 35.6%, 6/11: 36.8%, 7/10: 38.2%, 8/9: 50.0%). In later rounds, applies a general parity correction that grows stronger as the tournament progresses — reflecting that teams who survive early rounds have proven they can compete regardless of seed.
Penalizes teams with below-average adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE > 98) in later rounds. Historically, 15 of 18 champions since 2004 ranked top-25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The penalty scales stronger in deeper rounds, making it harder for offense-only teams to reach the Final Four.
For pool strategy, factors in how popular each pick is likely to be (swept from 0 to 1.2). A team picked by 30% of your pool gives zero edge if they win. The contrarian formula divides expected points by estimated public pick rate (based on seed), rewarding high-EV teams that fewer people are selecting. Scales logarithmically with pool size — larger pools demand more differentiation.
After generating all bracket variations, 5,000 tournaments are simulated by flipping weighted coins at each matchup (using Torvik probabilities with moderate variance damping). For each simulated tournament, the pool is also simulated: opponent brackets are generated using a model of typical public picking behavior (60% seed bias + 40% efficiency, with homer team inflation and random noise). Each bracket is scored against the actual simulated results and compared to the best opponent score. The percentage of simulations where a bracket wins outright is its pool win probability — shown as "Win %" on each card.
The eight recommended brackets are selected to maximize variety. After each recommendation is chosen, subsequent picks are penalized for reusing the same champion (−50), identical Final Four (−30), or 3+ overlapping Final Four teams (−15). This ensures the sidebar presents genuinely different bracket strategies, not slight variations of the same chalk picks.
Controls how aggressive the contrarian weighting is. In a 10-person office pool, chalk is fine. In a 500-person pool, you need differentiation to have any chance of winning.
Teams with strong fan representation in your pool. Their estimated public pick rate gets inflated — scaling with round, up to 85% in the championship — making them progressively less attractive for contrarian brackets in later rounds. In Elite 8+ rounds, homer teams also receive a direct score penalty, reflecting that picking the same team as your whole pool provides zero competitive edge even if they win.
Your personal favorite. Generates a dedicated "My Team" bracket that advances them as deep as mathematically reasonable, tiebroken by overall expected value. Heart meets math.
Each bubble is a unique bracket generated from a different combination of the six parameters above (672 combinations before deduplication). The X-axis shows early-round EV (R64 + R32 + Sweet 16) and the Y-axis shows late-round EV (Elite 8 + Final Four + Championship). Bubble size reflects total EV; color reflects divergence from chalk (teal = chalk, red = chaos). The "Chart: These Only" toggle filters the scatter plot to show just the recommended brackets.